USA Economic Indicators (as per NBER)
presentation_cycle-of-us-economy_080812
–>Resource: Econoday: What is a recession (and are we in one)?; Econoday Short Take 10/22/08; By Anne D. Picker, Chief Economist, Econoday
http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/04/06/6-month-forecast-econ/
–>Evidence:
12/1/08 NBER makes the call Dec 2007 begins our current recession
Nouriel Roubini (1, 2, 3, some papers) ; This guy was well aware check his speeches in 2006 & 2007 (summary, full text, video)
GDP
Date (2008): |
7/31 |
8/28 |
9/26 |
10/30 |
11/25 |
12/23 |
Type: |
Q2a |
Q2p |
Q2f |
Q3a |
Q3p |
Q3f |
~4 Indicators~
Sales (Retail Sales)
Date (2008): |
7/15 |
8/13 |
9/12 |
10/15 |
11/14 |
12/12 |
Type: |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Consumer Expenditure Survey Home Page
The Bonddad Blog: Consumer Spending Drops
The Bonddad Blog: Personal Consumption Expenditures Flat
Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2000-2006 (not adj for inflation)
Production (Industrial Production)
Date (2008): |
7/16 |
8/15 |
9/15 |
10/16 |
11/17 |
12/15 |
Type: |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
ISM Mfg Index ( 4/1/08 ) ; (ISM source page, ISM?)
Overview of BLS Productivity Statistics
The Bonddad Blog: Industrial Production and Empire State Survey Show Increasing Weakness
Employment (Payrolls & Unemployment Rate)
Date (2008): |
7/3 |
8/1 |
9/5 |
10/3 |
11/7 |
12/5 |
Type: |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment
FedStats: Labor statistics
::FedStats provides easy access to statistics and information produced by more than 100 U.S. Federal Government agencies
The Bonddad Blog: Gas Prices Starting to Hit Employment Numbers
Income (Personal Income & Outlays)
Date (2008): |
8/4 |
8/29 |
9/29 |
10/31 |
11/26 |
12/24 |
Type: |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Overview of BLS Statistics on Wages, Earnings, and Benefits
Econoday Report: Personal Income and Outlays 28, 2008
Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2000-2006 (which includes income)
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Sectors
Housing/Construction
Financial
Energy
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Charts (WTIC, USD/EU, Dow, & Nasdaq)
Reports
http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/04/11/us-economy-2008-hoover-ville/
http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/04/09/bbc-imf-report-global-impact-of-us-recession/
http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/04/08/whats-causing-the-price-hike-on-food/
http://marcelinopena.wordpress.com/2008/05/30/its-the-debt-stupid/
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/data-bytes/trade-bytes/trade-deficit-hits-4th-consecutive-record/
–>2/10/06 CEPR report on US Trade Deficit for the long-term & short-term effects. See above link for current numbers.
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US Economy 2008 – Recession/Depression
note that as of today(11/12/08) we’re at D:8,282.66, SP5:852.3
which is at boderline pre-1997 levels
table D
| 10/29/2008 | 12:50pEST | 9180.37 | ||
| 10/9/2007 | :Close | 14087.55 | 0.348335 | |
| 1.06 years | ||||
| scenarios | -%change | |||
| 10/1/2007:Close | 14087.55 | 9180.37 | 0.348335 | |
| 10/12/1998 | -1000 | 8180.37 | 0.419319 | |
| 7180.37 | 0.490304 | |||
| 6180.37 | 0.561289 | |||
| 5180.37 | 0.632273 | |||
| 4180.37 | 0.703258 | |||
| 3180.37 | 0.774243 | |||
| 2180.37 | 0.845227 |
———————————
table SP5
| 10/29/2008 | 1:10pEast | 945.29 | ||
| 10/9/2007 | :Close | 1565.15 | 0.396039 | |
| 1.06 years | ||||
| scenarios | ||||
| 10/9/2007:Close | 1565.15 | 945.29 | 0.396039 | |
| 5/28/1997 | -100 | 845.29 | 0.45993 | |
| 745.29 | 0.523822 | |||
| 645.29 | 0.587714 | |||
| 545.29 | 0.651605 | |||
| 445.29 | 0.715497 | |||
| 345.29 | 0.779389 | |||
| 245.29 | 0.84328 |
———————————
table GD1
| DOW | ||||
| 7/5/1932 | 41.63 | |||
| 8/26/1929 | 380.33 | 0.890542 | ||
| 2.87 years | ||||
| scenarios | ||||
| 8/26/1929 | 380.33 | 41.63 | 0.890542 | |
| recovery back to 380 (100%) | 50 | 91.63 | 0.759078 | |
| 141.63 | 0.627613 | |||
| 191.63 | 0.496148 | |||
| 241.63 | 0.364683 | |||
| 291.63 | 0.233219 | |||
| 341.63 | 0.101754 | |||
| 11/22/1954 | 387.79 | -0.01961 | ||
| 25.33 years |
——————————————————————
–>Great place to see that past recessions in the US Economy starting with 1857 (Q2) – 1858 (Q3).
–>The last recession occurred in 2001 (Q1) – 2001 (Q3)
–>UCLA Anderson still thinks (nervously) no recession – 3/11/08
–>Warren Buffet today spoke on the recession being longer & deeper than anticipated.
–>Separately today, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth this year and said there’s a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Also, orders to U.S. factories fell more than forecast in February, a Commerce Department report showed. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Bloomberg Television in an interview from Beijing that the IMF numbers appear “overblown to me.” He indicated a willingness to consider congressional plans to stem foreclosures by expanding government guarantees for mortgages.
- YouTube – Riz Khan – The ‘R’ word – Pt 1 – 25 March 08
- YouTube – Riz Khan – The ‘R’ Word – Pt 2 – 25 March 08
- Recession, downturn or simply a slump? Irrespective of the language no-one can deny the US economy has taken a turn for the worse.The question is today will …
- We take a look at the state of the US economy and the impact it is having worldwide.
- Fortune magazine’s winter 2008 Investor’s Special focuses on where to invest in the recession economy.
- A transcript of the FT’s interview with George Magnus of UBS.
- Ben S. Bernanke, who has long argued that a central bank should act on consistent principles, now has to improvise.
- All the global business intelligence you need on over 195 countries
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More Resources
Project Syndicate: Finance in the Twenty-First Century: by Nouriel Roubini and Robert J. Shiller
Economists: Nouriel Roubini, Joseph Stiglitz,
Statistics survey (National) Home Page
Programs and Surveys
Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistics: Releases and Historical Data
Economic Indicators and Releases
john-perkins-confessions-of-an-economic-hitman-finalni
